Let me give you some context around this interview with a 19-year-old Starlin Castro. It’s November of 2009 and he’s about to start playing with the Leones of Escogido, a Dominican Winter League team.
Starlin just wrapped up a pretty good year in the minors where he played at three different levels and topped out at AA:
He hit .307 with a .349 OBP and slugged .399.He hit just 4 HRs yet stole 39 bases. Before the season Baseball America had him pegged as the Cubs 7th best prospect. A couple months after this interview was taped, they ranked him as the #1 prospect on the team, so this was clearly a very good year for his development and some chatter had begun about when he might make it to the big leagues.
OK, roll the tape (we’re picking this up at around 0:55):
Who is your favorite player, a player that you’ve always followed?
When I was young, it was Miguel Tejada [Miguel Tejada does a face palm]. Now that I’m older, I still like Tejada, but I like Hanley [Ramirez].
Why?
Because he’s a complete player. He can hit the ball out of the park, he can run, he can defend, he has all the fundamentals, and that’s something that I’d like to do in the future. [Very nice, standard stuff you would expect from a 19-year-old kid that topped out playing at AA. He was very careful not to snub Tejada but he likes how complete Hanley is. This is one of those answers that I’m sure makes guys like Tejada roll their eyes and go “I’m not THAT old!” But overall, a nice answer that’s very humble.]
[Jumping ahead to: 1:55]
At age 19, some people think it’s too early to talk about you at the big league level, that you’re too raw. An expert that watched you at the instructional league said that you don’t have a ceiling. And that if they let you into Spring Training, you could take that SS spot and make it your own. [In retrospect, this doesn’t seem far fetched, but back in 2009 this was kind of a stretch. A SS that can barely hit for power and is still developing his defense at age 19? To win the job out of spring training? Not likely]
That’s what I’m going for, to earn my spot. I know that I have a chance. [The interviewer starts to take the mic away because it sounds like he’s done answering…BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE!] Because the SS that’s there now—I can compete with him. [OK, let’s talk about this, because this is a little bit of confidence mixed with a direct shot at the current Cubs SS: Ryan Theriot. Theriot had a career year in 2008 (.307/.387./.359 with 22 steals out of the leadoff spot) and followed that up with a “nice” 2009 (.284/.343/.369 with 21 steals). You hear prospects intimate at how close they are to making it to the bigs WAY before they’re actually ready, but this was calling out a specific player. A guy who is a starter at the big-league level…oh Starlin…big leaguers do NOT like this kind of thing, by the way.]
Do you consider yourself a power hitter, a line-drive hitter?
Line drive hitter. Maybe I don’t have all the power in the world, but I’m only 19 so maybe in the future I’ll have more power [Got to give it to the kid here…he pretty much nailed it: Starlin never hit more than 4 HRs in a minor-league season and then he went 3, 10, 14, 10, 14 in each successive big-league season.].
The Aftermath
Starlin had a pretty bad 8 games with Escogido that winter (.182/.280/.182 in 22 ABs).
He had already played in the Arizona Fall League, where he hit .376/.396/.475 in 101 ABs. If you’re keeping tabs, that’s 592 ABs for Starlin in 2009…yowza.
He did indeed get invited to Spring Training in 2010, where he impressed (.421/.661/.714 with a HR and 2 3Bs).
Ryan Theriot started 2010 as the starting SS and moved over to 2B in May, where Castro proceeded to:
His 3rd AB would be a 3-run triple. Welcome to the big leagues Starlin…we’re lucky to have you!
The Chicago Cubs have a lot of shortstops on 40-man roster:
Starlin Castro: Starting SS
Addison Russell: ML-ready SS, now playing 2B
Jonathan Herrera: Utility IF, plays anywhere on the infield
Javier Baez: Converted to 2B, also a backup SS
Arismendy Alcantara: Cubs version of Ben Zobrist, plays everywhere. Starting at 2B in AAA
Junior Lake: Now exclusively an OF in AAA
So what do you do when you have one spot for a SS and that many guys who can play the position on your roster? You move them around somewhere else!
When I discussed the Cubs 2015 Defense, I talked about how many players were playing out of position, which was a bit of a concern. That got me thinking about how easily the Cubs FO is willing to put a SS somewhere else on the diamond:
Javier Baez, who still needs to work on his pitch selection, was brought up to the big leagues and told to learn 2B on the fly.
Addison Russell has just been told the same thing: welcome to the big leagues—here’s your new position!
Junior Lake was converted into an OF as he approached the big leagues, and now that’s all he plays. Not to blame the position shift on his bombing with the bat at the big-league level, but you never know.
Arismendy is probably the most interesting case, because his athleticism has anointed him with the title of “super utility” player, which means he’ll play anywhere on the field.
Is all of this OK?
Well, it’s obviously OK because the Cubs are doing it and Joe Maddon can do no wrong.
But seriously, if you want to move a player around like this, the SS is the right guy to ask. From way down in little league all the way up to pro ball, the SS is typically one of the most athletic, talented players on the team.
And this is especially true when it comes to defensive ability—the Cubs just happen to have a handful of shortstops that can actually hit.
So how hard is it to take a SS and ask him to play a new position?
This question was brought up a lot when Javier Baez was called up and asked to move to 2B. I didn’t think it was a great idea because his bat needed work—why put this whole new set of demands on him?
The Negatives
Why take a young player that’s on the cusp of making it to the big leagues and then ask him to learn a brand-new position at the highest possible level? Not only does it hamper his development, it also negatively affects the big-league club’s defense.
So you’re losing out at both ends. Why do it then?
The Positives
We got to see Javier Baez playing in the big leagues regularly at the end of 2014. We are getting to see Addison Russell NOW rather than later on.
Here’s where you try to take a negative and turn it into a positive: asking Baez and Russell to “worry” about playing a new position takes some of the mental toll off of their bats.
You hear managers and veterans tell young players all the time: “Just be yourself, do what you’ve always done, don’t try to do too much.”
Asking them to play a new position helps with that. As long as they’re athletic enough (which most SSs are), they should be OK defensively while the bat just does what it should do. This is assuming the bat is ready (which is why Baez should be at AAA, still).
As for the Alcantaras and Lakes—players who aren’t currently everyday players at their new position—they’ve now become more flexible players that can bring that versatility to the team and to their game.
Alcantara could become a super utility guy that allows Joe Maddon to do all kinds of crazy things with the lineup.
Junior Lake could provide some depth as a 4th outfielder or could bring something back in a trade.
How Hard is It?
For a player who can play SS at the pro level, not terribly hard. Yes, the double play is different. The ball comes off the bat differently. There are new angles to learn. You won’t be as comfortable in the field at the new position.
That can all be learned rather quickly—the part that is VERY hard is doing this at the big league level for the first time.
Welcome to the highest rung of pro ball—you finally made it here! Now go stand over here and learn all these nuances on the fly while helping the team win. Go!
That’s not easy, but it’s what the FO has chosen to go with in an effort to make 2015 the season where the Cubs are no longer “rebuilding” and go into “competing” mode.
Personally, I’ve waited long enough. After seeing Kris Bryant in CF last night, I’m excited to see what else Maddon has up his sleeve in an effort to get this team to the playoffs.
Get your catcher’s mitt ready Javier, you never know…
Ichiro is awesome. Not only is he one of the most unique players we’ve ever seen, he’s quite the character as well. He’ll surprise you with an All-Star game speech one day and then the next there’s rumors that he could be a power hitter if he wanted to.
Now we have another gem: Ichiro speaks a little bit of Spanish. And in classic Ichiro fashion, he likes to have some fun with it.
My favorite bit? When asked why he still uses an interpreter when he can speak relatively well (in English), he answers:
“Those are two completely different things,” he insists. “When I’m being interviewed, presumably it’s because people want to know how I feel about something or what my motivation is, not because they want to hear what I sound like in English. I wouldn’t be true to the task if I responded in my unrefined English. It might be funny for a second to hear me bumble my way through, but I have to believe that they’re asking because they sincerely want to know my thoughts. I’d rather respond, then, in my native tongue so I can most accurately express myself.”
And that really gets to the heart of the matter when you’re trying to translate the words someone is saying. There is the literal meaning, there is the cultural translation you try to address, and then there’s the human part of it you try to get across as well. What a smile or a smirk might mean in the context of the words coming out of a player’s mouth.
It’s not easy, but when you do it right it’s a great feeling because—in a way—you’re helping this person express themselves and allowing them to connect with other people.
And one more part I liked from this story—Ichiro on why he gets along so well with Spanish players:
“I feel a bond with them,” he said. “We’re all foreigners in a strange land. We’ve come over here and had to cope with some of the same trials and tribulations. When I throw a little Spanish out at them, they really seem to appreciate it and it seems to strengthen that bond. And besides, we don’t really have curse words in Japanese, so I like the fact that the Western languages allow me to say things that I otherwise can’t.”
God bless you Ichiro…we’re gonna miss you when you’re gone.
I’m a Cubs fan through and through, but I have no beef with the White Sox. I enjoy going to The Cell (though I’ll never again wear my Cubs jersey…that was a disaster) and I don’t want to see them fail (unless they’re playing the Cubs).
In that way, I’m unlike a lot of Chicago fans that hate the other team.
To prove it, I wanted to translate a couple of interviews with the mighty Jose Abreu, who is having a monster debut in the big leagues after coming over from Cuba. As of this writing, he’s hitting .320 and slugging .602.
While his power output hasn’t been what it was in the first half (when he hit 29 HRs), he’s hitting a ridiculous .380/.460/.540 in the second half. So, really, let’s not all start freaking out.
Let’s start with an interview from a few weeks ago when everyone was worried that Abreu hadn’t hit a homer in 15 games (he’s hit 2 since) and people were starting to worry a little bit. Want to know how to tactfully ask a 6’3, 255-pound guy why he hasn’t hit a homerun in a while? Here’s how:
Guy Off Camera (GOC): How do you feel about the length of the season. If you think about when you started in February, how do you feel? Do you feel the season is very long? [he’s setting him up for the question on everyone’s mind…like I said, tactfully…]
Jose Abreu: No, really, it’s a lot of games (big smile) [he’s acknowledging this. Yes, he knows this is more games than he’s ever played]. The season is very long, but you know, we’re working to feel as good as possible, physically. During the season, it’s very boring, the same routing over and over. [I love that he says this…I’m sure it’s true but if a guy said this in English he’d get blasted…I think] But no, I mean, it’s 162 games and we have less to go than when we started [very clever little drop here…and a hint of a smile as he says it…Jose has some sass. I like it].
Guy Off Camera (GOC): Lately the homeruns have not come. You think that’s because the season is drawing to a close? [finally the question everyone wants an answer to…he’s trying to get at the fact that the season is longer than anything he’s played before and maybe he’s tired…nevermind that he also just had a ridiculous first half]
Jose Abreu: [punches GOC in face and walks away…NO just kidding!]No no, that’s a normal thing, it also happened to me in Cuba [breathe easier Sox fans…it’s not a new thing for him]. For a while I wouldn’t hit a homerun, and then they would start up again. For me it’s a normal thing. It’s nothing that’s worrying me right now.
Guy Off Camera (GOC): You’re style of hitting has always been up the middle and the other way, is that still your batting approach?
Jose Abreu: No, that has not changed [in Spanish we use “No” a lot as an opener to a sentence, even if in translation it sounds like he’s answering the question with a “no,” which he’s not. Let’s say it’s the equivalent to “I mean”]. It’s still the same. I haven’t had the results in the last 5-6 games, but the approach hasn’t changed, I’m still doing that and working to get the results we want [love how much he uses “we” by the way].
Guy Off Camera (GOC): Does it bother you that you’ve raised expectations so high that people expect you to hit homeruns and keep up this pace you’ve set? [do you hate me? is what he’s asking]
Jose Abreu: No that’s normal, it doesn’t bother me. That’s only going to make me a better player. And going out there with those expectations every day, giving 100% in every game, regardless of the results, is going to make me a better player.
Let’s check in with Jose two weeks later. He’s hit two more home runs in that span and has raised his average to .321 after facing the Tigers in a doubleheader.
He looks angry but don’t worry! He’s just listening very intently
Guy Off Camera (GOC): How does it feel that the Tigers hit Sale a bit in the first and you were able to support him and get the game back?
Jose Abreu: No, you know, pitching to this team is hard. They have a lot of very talented players that everyone knows about. The first inning didn’t go so well, but he recovered and we were able to get the game back, and that’s what we did. We got the victory.
Guy Off Camera (GOC): Do you play better or with more ambition playing against a guy like Miguel Cabrera? [sorry, dumb question]
Jose Abreu: No, what can I say? [what did I say about all those “no”s???] I play all the games the same way. Miguelito [literally, “small Miguel” but it’s a term of endearment/respect. He obviously is friendly with Cabrera and even if the translation doesn’t come across, he clearly reveres the man] is a really, what I call, a delicious [another term of endearment…one he made up it sounds like. He’s funny, Jose] person. He helps you every game, every at bat [how, I’m not sure…do they talk shop? Did he help him adjusting to the league? Would be a good follow up question. Check out this video to see him praising Cabrera some more, and to confirm they talk shop]. He’s a man that deserves all the respect in the world. He’s just an exceptional person.
Guy Off Camera (GOC): In the last 10 games you’re hitting over .500, how do you feel?
Jose Abreu: No, it feels good, good. I have to give God credit for giving me the opportunity.
Guy Off Camera (GOC): I know you don’t like to talk about personal awards [but I’m going to ask anyway], but how would it feel to win a batting title?
Jose Abreu: There are a lot of games left still. We’re not thinking about records, we’re thinking about helping the White Sox in everything we [we, we, we] can. To me that’s the most important thing.
Guy Off Camera (GOC): Tells us about your leg, is it bothering you? How does it feel?
Jose Abreu: No, well, we’re doing a lot of physical therapy. We’ve been working on the lower part of the waist [or below the waist? Not sure but I’ll spare you the immature commentary]. The leg was bothering me a bit, but I can keep playing the games that are left.
Summary
Jose Abreu has that look about him: the same look Albert Pujols has always had. He’s hyper focused on his craft and nothing else seems to bother him. But he also has a sense of humor and can be lighthearted at times.
None of this should matter if you’re a White Sox fan. What should matter? His approach is fantastic and he has no plans on changing it. This guy is looking more and more like a steal. We’ll see how much he adjusts to the major-league pitchers, but so far so good.
Translating isn’t a perfect science, the best you can do is to express the ideas a person is trying to get across as best you can. When I saw this Jorge Soler interview I remember saying to myself “There are a couple of things in that translation that aren’t quite right.”
Now, normally, I’d leave it at that. But as a Cubs fan that likes to consume everything I possibly can about the team and its prospects, I figured I would translate the interview into what I think is a closer translation.
Here is the original video and a transcript below of my version:
CSN: Congratulations on player of the week.
Jorge Soler: Thank you.
CSN: What did you do in Arizona to get healthy?
In Arizona I was getting better and working hard every day in the training room. And every day even if I couldn’t get on the field, I was hitting in the cage.
CSN: Ever had hamstring issues before?
That started here. I never pulled my hamstrings in Cuba, this is the first time
CSN: What have the Cubs done to keep you healthy?
Well, they put me on a program for my hamstrings, I do exercises every day before starting a game.
CSN: Did working with Manny help you?
[big smile at mention of Manny] Yeah he helped me a lot, he’s a super star and a tremendous person. I was working every day in the cage and he “polished me with some [ideas?bad habits?]” that I/he had. On my swing, he told me to swing down on the ball, not up.
[the gist is that Manny had some tips that helped him clean some things up in his swing, it’s hard to get the exact word he’s using there at the end of the sentence]
CSN: Lots of great players from Cuba, what’s the experience been like?
Jorge Soler:The difference is big, mainly because we don’t know English, and that’s a difficult process. The game is different in Cuba, there are more rules here. In Cuba we don’t have as many rules.
CSN: What did you learn from your troubles in Daytona? [referencing the bat-threat incident]
Jorge Soler: I learned a lot from this experience [big exhale], there are rules here and you have to follow them. I have to keep my cool more. I have learned to control myself and focus more. That’s not going to happen again.
CSN: You love baseball
Jorge Soler: Yes I like it [big smile]
CSN: What is it like to be a Cub?
Jorge Soler: I like it a lot, I’m part of an organization that hasn’t won a championship in a while and when we win a championship I want to be a part of that team. And I thank God for the opportunity to be here.
CSN: How long do you think it will take to get from Tenn to big leagues?
I don’t know, I’m going to keep working hard like I have been and leave it all on the field. [sports clichés are a worldwide phenomenon, apparently]
CSN: Who were your favorite players?
Jorge Soler: When I was young, I never had the chance to watch US baseball, but when I was older I liked Manny. I felt so happy because I thought he was a person that was more…I don’t know. [he’s trying to find a positive thing here but can’t quite find the word…it’s cute, he’s gushing] But he’s a tremendous person, he talked to me like nothing. [presumably, the way we would all feel in the presence of a famous person we absolutely adore] All good. The first time I talked to him I was feeling nervous.
CSN: You’ll be in the bigs with little kids looking up to you.
Jorge Soler: [huge smile] I’ll be very happy to be there and signing the balls for the youngster
Commentary
Overall, my impressions of Soler (from this and other interviews) are that he’s a good guy. I know the bat incident in Daytona got him off to a bad start, but still. He’s a young guy coming over from a different country, speaking a new language, and there’s going to be issues like that.
But you see him dropping a little bit of English here and there—he’s trying.
Also, I’ve talked to a lot of Cuban players and watched a lot of interviews with young guys like Soler, and often you get a very detached guy who has put up walls around him to just make their lives easier to manage. I saw a Rusney Castillo interview the other day that was very much like that.
Soler doesn’t have any of that. He comes across as open yet nervous, and I think he’ll go through a period of adjustment with the big-league club that will set him up to be very comfortable come Spring Training. Especially since he’s familiar with some of the guys on the team already.
Cubs fans (including myself) are excited right now: our top prospects are starting to flow into the big leagues, there’s plenty of budget to sign a pitcher or two in the offseason, and our existing pitchers are making their case to be a part of the long-term plan (see Hendricks).
All in all, “next year” really does appear to be next year. Or maybe the year after that.
But there’s one part of the team you haven’t heard much about: defense.
We have heard that having so many shortstops is great because they can play anywhere. But how does that impact the overall defense of a young team trying to come climb out of years of sucktitude?
Let’s take a look at the main position player(s) for each position for the 2015 Cubs. We’ll use this as our starting point:
Let me give the 2015 #Cubs lineup a shot:
Coghlan LF
Baez 2B
Castro SS
Rizzo 1B
Soler RF
Bryant 3B
Castillo C
Alcantara CF
Coghlan was originally a 2B that was moved to the outfield during his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2009. The numbers show him as a liability out there: his -12.0 UZR/150 (and -8.4 in his career as a LF) would place him next to last in baseball if he qualified. Right above the immortal Melky Cabrera.
Personally, I love the on-base skills and veteranness that he brings, so I’m fine with having him out there…but just want to point out that we have a 2B playing left field right now.
I know it’s not fair to cherry pick a bad play like this, but I’m doing it anyway:
And just to be fair—let’s be clear that this isn’t Jose Canseco out there:
Summary: Not Helping
2B – Javier Baez
Speaking of position switches, this is one storyline that people have been quick to embrace. Yeah, he’s a SS being asked to move over to 2B and Baez himself says he’s totally comfortable with it. And yes, Baseball America touted Baez as the Cubs’ best infielder (in the minors) in 2013, so there’s that.
But it’s still a position change. At the highest level. By a guy that was never touted as a potential gold glover or anything. And he’s just 21 years old.
The thing is, playing 2B is probably easier than playing SS, so this move might actually help Baez’s transition to the Majors because he doesn’t have to worry about all the things that come with being a SS. So far he’s flashed a plus arm and made the plays he needs to make, with the occasional error thrown in.
He’s no Darwin Barney, but hey—he’ll probably blow through Barney’s career HR number (18) in just a few months.
So while Cubs fans can’t complain, we need to remember that he’s a rookie, he’s 21, and he came up as a SS.
Summary: Should be decent
SS – Starlin Castro
Starlin took a lot of heat when he was younger, and some of that has unfairly followed him around. This is his fifth season as the starting SS and he’s only 24 years old.
Advanced fielding metrics show that he’s slightly below average, but he’s definitely shown an improvement since 2010. Slight as it may be, his fielding percentage has improved each year he’s been in the league:
Year
Fld %
2010
0.950
2011
0.961
2012
0.964
2013
0.967
2014
0.964
But again, for the offense he’s contributing and the improvements he’s made, everyone is quite pleased to have him out there. Besides, if defense ever becomes a sticking point at SS, the Cubs have Addison Russell, who is supposed to be a plus defender.
Summary: Slightly Below Average
1B – Anthony Rizzo
Finally, an elite defender on the team! Watching Rizzo play 1B is reminiscent of Mark Grace. The way he gobbles up grounders and feeds pitchers covering the bag makes you feel comfortable trusting this man with your newborn baby.
If you look at all qualifying 1B that from 2012 until now, Rizzo is at or near the top in metrics like UZR/150 and RngR (2nd place behind Adrian Gonzalez).
He was also a Gold Glove finalist last year (Goldschmidt won it). Rizzo’s made some nice tumbling catches, but to me it’s this kind of play that really shows his value: saving runs and making his infielders better in the process.
All in all, the Cubs have an elite defensive player at a key position, which is great news.
Summary: Elite Player
RF – Jorge Soler / Justin Ruggiano
Let’s start with Ruggiano, who actually has more career innings in LF and CF than in RF. He also fits into this whole “playing (slightly) out of position” theme touched on. But over his career, Ruggiano has profiled as average to slightly above average in the OF. And while he profiles more as a 4th OF, the Cubs have a guy that can play anywhere in the OF and give them pretty good defense (never mind his offensive game, for now).
Here’s what we know about Soler: he has a cannon of an arm, though it’s not always the most accurate. While comparisons to Yasiel Puig are inevitable, we’ll just have to wait and see what he does from a defensive standpoint. He hasn’t had that much playing time to really make a call one way or another, but from all the reports I’m reading, no one seems to be worried about his defense. You have to take it with a grain of salt, but here’s what Jed Hoyer said:
[Soler] has been playing great, and is locked in now, and great at-bats, great attitude, playing good defense.
Summary: Average
3B – Kris Bryant / Luis Valbuena
I’ll be honest: I didn’t expect this one. Luis Valbuena (who also plays 2B, mind you) turns out to be one of the top defensive 3B in the game—according to UZR. If you look at the data from 2012-2014 (when he started playing mostly at 3B), Valbuena is behind only Manny Machado in UZR/150 and 6th in Fangraphs’ DEF metric (which I think is their defense-only WAR metric). All in all, Valbuena has been very good at 3B, while bringing that added flexibility of moving to 2B if need be (which isn’t a need now that Baez is up).
As for Bryant, it’s tough to tell. It’s his first full pro season and from the beginning, scouts were assuming he’d have to move to the outfield. Those murmurs have definitely faded over time, which is a good sign. He’s been working at it, and it’s starting to pay off. In fact, Bryant was named the top defensive 3B in the Pacific Coast league by Baseball America.
Summary:Above Average
C – Welington Castillo
Last season, the Cubs were the third-best team in the league in defensive efficiency thanks largely to Darwin Barney, Anthony Rizzo, and Welington Castillo. Castillo isn’t just an above-average backstop: he’s right up there in the top 5 in the NL.
He’s above average at blocking balls, keeping runners from stealing, and he’s handling all the new pitchers coming on board really nicely. Some might even say he’s reached elite status.
Remember when we couldn’t decide if Castillo or Clevenger should be the catcher of the future next few years? Yeah, this was the right call.
Summary: Very Good
CF – Arismendy Alcantara
Here’s another guy playing out of position. Instead of staying in the infield like Baez, however, Mendy is out in center field. This gives him a little more time to react to balls and use his speed to make up for any bad jumps, but so far he’s done a pretty serviceable job. His longer throws still tail quite a bit to his left, but that’s easy to fix with practice and experience.
“He’s been playing well in center field, and I’m trying to teach him different things, such as throws from the outfield,” Sweeney said. “He’s a great kid who wants to get better. It’s fun to watch these guys play and just help them in any way I can.” – From Chicago Tribune
So far, we’ve gotten what we would expect from putting a young, athletic, middle-infielder out in CF: some good stuff mixed with some bumbles that can easily be attributed to “not enough experience,” which is encouraging.
All in all, Mendy will probably put get better as he gets more and more experience in the outfield, and with his speed, arm, and athleticism, become an above-average CF. For now, he’s just average.
Summary: Average
Couple of Things
One of the most intriguing things is that Renteria said Matt Szczur is a guy they see as a 4th outfielder that can platoon. Curious to see how much platooning the Cubs will do next year with so many young kids in the lineup…it didn’t really help Olt and Lake much, but I commend the Cubs explicitly trying.
Also, Szczur is supposed to be an elite defensive outfielder, so that’s a good sign.
It’s All About Winning
Fielding a good defensive team is all well and good, but we should only care about it if it’s leading to more wins. The Royals are not good bad at drawing walks and hitting home runs, so they absolutely have to have great defense to be in the playoff hunt (read this for more on the Royals, you’ll thank me later).
It definitely doesn’t hurt (duh), but you’ll also note that the Padres are a very good defensive team and are well below .500.
BUT but but! The better your defense, the better your pitchers will be (especially a contact/grounder machine like Hendricks). Having some really talented players sprinkled on the team means your young prospects that are coming up will also benefit.
Your 1B can save a lot of bad throws and your catcher can block some pitches in the dirt from your young pitchers.
That’s why Rizzo and Castillo are so important.
It may sound like I’m overall negative on the team’s defense going into 2015. But one thing you have to admit is that the roster has a ton of flexibility built into it. That is, you have guys that can move around a lot and adapt to several different positions.
I’m not saying this is a Moneyball-ish trait (at least not for this team) that will help in making them contenders, but it’s a must when you have a lot of depth in your system at certain positions. If you are in trade conversations, your opponent doesn’t have that leverage over you that you have to move a guy because everyone knows you got nowhere to play them.
Dan Vogelbach is a good example of this: he can play 1B and that’s pretty much it. If he was at AAA killing the ball and his development indicated it was time for him to be called up, the Cubs would lose some leverage there, because they already have a long-term solution at 1B.
In the end, the Cubs are looking like an average defensive team in 2015 with an outside shot at being a tick above, and I’m totally OK with that.
First we need to make one thing clear: the Cubs will NOT field a team made up solely of prospects or “young guys.” This just doesn’t happen. It’s the reason why Luis Valbuena, Justin Ruggiano, and Chris Coghlan are still on the team.
It might work in video games, but in the real world you need a veteran presence. And besides, some of those prospects will wind up failing and never amounting to anything.
Which brings me to Junior Lake.
Junior Lake's month so far: 2 starts, 5 DNP, 2 PH and 1 PR. July line was .114/.133/.159. #Cubs
Junior got off to a nice start in May, hitting .273 with 4 HRs and 6 BBs. Since then, he’s hitting .182 with 1 BB (!) and 42 Ks.
His 2013 slash of .284/.332/.428 is but a distant memory.
Junior’s Special Sauce
At his best, Lake is a player with speed and power that can play multiple positions. There’s just something about watching a guy lay down a bunt and hustling to first that can also hit a towering home run that fills me with joy.
His minor league numbers and his tools make me think he could become a poor man’s Carlos Gomez (without all those steals) or a lesser-hyped Corey Patterson: a guy who just can’t stop striking out—therefore neutralizing his speed.
Either way, we’re not going to find out with him sitting on the bench (he’s 24 years old). As far as I see it, there are four different outcomes for Junior:
1. Back to AAA
Send him down the way you did Mike Olt so he can get some at bats, work on some things, and pick up some confidence. I know it’s easier said than done, but just tell him to stop swinging as hard as he can every single time AND work on controlling the zone. Maybe he figures some stuff out and comes back a better player.
2. Fourth Outfielder/Utility Guy
Gets a start here and there against lefties, comes in for defense, and provides some pop off the bench. Instead of having Travis Wood come in to run, Lake does it. He can play the infield as well. This is less exciting and obviously not as valuable, but this could be where he ends up if he can’t get back on track (or if the Cubs just don’t give him any ABs).
3. Traded
I don’t see this happening now since his trade value is so low, but you never know. Someone decides to take a flier on him (Detroit?) to see what he can do with some consistent playing time. If this does actually happen, I’m thinking it’ll be next year once the Cubs actually get him playing regularly (be it in the bigs or in the minors).
4. Injury Opens Up Playing Time
Someone gets hurt and Junior gets to play every day. You never know with baseball, so it’s nice to have the depth to cover any kind of injury, but this is kind of a boring answer both for Lake fans and for Lake himself. It means he maybe gets another shot at starting.
What’s the Rush?
Why worry about Junior Lake right now? Like I said, he’s young and there’s plenty of time to watch him mature and figure things out…right?
Kind of.
The Cubs’ window of respectability is slowly opening and the next prospect banging on the door is Jorge Soler, who will get RF all to himself, squeezing Lake out even further.
Why do I care? Because that damn combination of power, speed, and the willingness to bunt. Most guys that can hit home runs see bunting as beneath them, and I love Lake’s willingness to take the bunt single if he sees it there.
Besides, even though I know not every prospect is going to work out, I’m still not ready to give up on this one. Hell, I’m still hoping Josh Vitters might shock the world and turn into something.
By the way, if you want to read more on Lake, check out the SunTimes. @TonyAndracki23 wrote a nice piece on Junior Lake that came out last night asking a lot of the same questions I cover here.
In case you missed the All-Star Game a few weeks ago, the NL starter at 3B was former Cub Aramis Ramirez. When Adrian Beltre came up to bat (as a pinch hitter), the announcers started gushing about what a great player he has been in his career. They even talked a little bit about his chances of making the Hall of Fame.
As well they should: Beltre probably deserves to make it in.
But another part of me got upset.
Fun With Spreadsheets
About a year ago I put together a spreadsheet that compared Aramis and Beltre’s career batting numbers, and they were pretty much equals. They were the same age and had been in the league about the same time.
How come Aramis didn’t get any love in the All Star Game? How come Aramis never gets any love? How come there are tons of articles debating Beltre’s chances at making the Hall of Fame, while Aramis has just one?
I decided to find out.
In a nutshell, here’s what I found: both have been elite third basemen. Great careers. One has been quietly consistent while the other has had some phenomenal peaks and meh lows.
After crunching all the data, Beltre has clearly been the superior player. But determining both of their Hall-worthiness will depend on how much weight their defense (or lack of) is given.
Los Numeros
Let’s look at some good ol’ fashioned, non-sabermetric, back-of-the-baseball-card career numbers:
BA
OBP
SLG
ARam
0.285
0.344
0.499
Beltre
0.284
0.335
0.479
Are you also kind of surprised that Aramis holds a slight edge over Beltre? I was too.
Some more “old-school” numbers:
R
H
HR
RBI
ARam
1044
2136
367
1328
Beltre
1234
2546
391
1365
OK, so in terms of raw numbers, Beltre has Aramis beat.* Both guys broke into the league when they were really young (19), and the reason why Beltre beats Aramis here is because he’s missed a bunch of games due to injuries. He may be slugging and getting on base at a better clip, but because Beltre has been healthier, he’s amassed more raw numbers.
*One other thing to keep in mind: Beltre played in pitcher-friendly Seattle for 5 years, and that hampered his numbers during that time.
And raw numbers are a big deal for hall-of-fame voters.
So are benchmarks.
Beltre has an actual shot at reaching 3,000 hits, which would make him a shoo-in since only George Brett and Wade Boggs hit 3,000 hits as third basemen (both are in the Hall).
Beltre also has a shot at 500 homers, and there are only two 3B in the Hall with that many cuadrangulares (Eddie Matthews and Mike Schmidt, 512 and 548 respectively).
Now is also a good time to mention that third base is the hardest position to “make it” into the Hall of Fame.
Of course, this doesn’t include Chipper Jones (who will definitely go in) and Scott Rolen (who might make it in). Not yet, anyway.
Legends of the Hall
Here’s what it takes to make into the Hall as a 3B:
WAR
AVG
OBP
SLG
Hits
HR
RBI
RUNS
SB
GG
AVG
68
0.296
0.366
0.453
2352
228
1203
1217
114
Frank Baker
63
0.307
0.363
0.442
1838
96
987
887
235
Wade Boggs
91
0.328
0.415
0.443
3010
118
1014
1513
24
2
George Brett
88
0.305
0.373
0.487
3154
317
1595
1583
201
1
Jimmy Collins
53
0.294
0.344
0.409
1999
65
983
1055
194
George Kell
37
0.306
0.368
0.414
2054
78
870
881
51
Freddie Lindstrom
28
0.311
0.351
0.449
1747
103
779
895
84
Eddie Mathews
96
0.271
0.378
0.509
2315
512
1453
1509
68
Brooks Robinson
78
0.267
0.325
0.401
2848
268
1357
1232
28
16
Ron Santo
70
0.277
0.362
0.464
2254
342
1331
1138
35
5
Mike Schmidt
106
0.267
0.384
0.527
2234
548
1595
1506
174
10
Pie Traynor
36
0.32
0.362
0.435
2416
58
1273
1183
158
Keep in mind that a lot of these guys got into the Hall back in the day and the standards are a little different now. You need eye-popping numbers or a boatload of gold gloves to make it in.
If you compare Aramis and Beltre to this group, they both definitely have a shot at making it.
Defensive Indifference
If we were to let Aramis “catch up” to the at bats Beltre has (roughly 3.5 season’s worth), their career offensive numbers would be pretty close.
But that doesn’t explain why Beltre gets so much more love than Aramis. The reason is that Beltre is widely considered one of the best defensive 3B of all time. Aramis isn’t considered anything.
Let’s look at their career WAR, the super stat that is supposed to be the best indicator of a player’s overall quality. WAR is what most baseball writers used to make the case that Mike Trout should’ve been the MVP over Miguel Cabrera the past two years.
It encompasses all the value a player brings to the game, including defense. Let’s look at their career numbers broken down by defensive and offensive WAR. And remember, WAR is cumulative, so the more you play, the more you can accumulate.
WAR
oWAR
dWAR
Aramis
33
40.7
-5.4
Beltre
75
55.9
22.6
This is why nobody talks about these two players in the same breath: Beltre smokes Aramis in career WAR.
Beltre has won four gold gloves to Aramis’ zero.
Aramis has always been an average third baseman, so I’m surprised that his WAR is actually negative. Beltre, on the other hand, has been routinely lauded as one of the best defensive third basemen in the history of the game.
So Will ARam Make it or Not?
Barring some kind of sudden collapse or career-threatening injury, Beltre is probably going to make it. His best comp right now is Ron Santo (and he’s a unique case), but with more time he’ll far surpass his numbers.
As for Aramis, the easiest way to tell is by looking ahead at what the voters do with Scott Rolen. Once that decision comes (in 2018), we’ll have the data on the rest of ARam and Beltre’s careers, as well as a general sense of how important defense and WAR will be to voters.
If Aramis is going to make it, he needs Beltre to get in (which is likely). If he plays 4-5 more seasons, Beltre could get up near that 90 WAR plateau, and it would get REALLY hard to keep him out. Especially if he gets 3,000 hits. He even has a shot at 500 HRs. Combine that with the four gold gloves he already has, and he won’t be denied.
Aramis, on the other hand, will need to produce at his highest level for a few more years to accumulate enough WAR to get him even close. Maybe moving to the AL where he can DH and staunch the negative dWAR (which, again, is kind of surprising) will help extend his career and his chances of making it in.
So if Rolen makes it then it’s very likely Beltre makes it, and those are good signs for Aramis.
What Others are Saying
Remember that one article that mentions Aramis and the Hall of Fame? Here it is again. From that article:
But MLB.com stats guru Roger Schlueter suggested that one of Ramirez’s suits — his consistency — will work against him in a Hall of Fame discussion. In other words, Ramirez’s career has had no clear peak, and his yearly contributions are impressive, but short of consideration for Cooperstown.
That sucks if his consistency would get in the way…I remember that incredible season Beltre had before he hit free agency: it put him on the map in a big way that Aramis never had.
I’ll leave you with how the players feel about their chances at making the Hall.
Beltre: “Maybe when I retire, I’ll look back at what I’ve done, maybe my son can appreciate what I’ve done.”
Aramis: “I always say I’ll look back on my numbers when I retire…”
Scanning the Orioles roster is like picking up a really old issue of Baseball America and flipping to the Cubs section. You may remember such names as Lou Montanez, Corey Patterson, Will Ohman, Jake Fox, and the not-so-long-ago likes of Felix Pie.
How did all this happen? Sure, the Orioles suck and they’ll take anyone’s refuse if its cheap and there’s any prayer players might produce, but let’s take a look at each player, how they got to Baltimore, and how they’re doing on the “the AAAA All-Star squad.”
Lou Montanez: The Cubs first-round pick was supposed to be an A-Rod type player. Drafted out of high school, I remember him hitting BP at Wrigley Field the day he signed. He spent four years in A ball with the Cubs before everyone realized this guy was more of a fourth outfielder than an all-star shortstop. So he was moved to the outfield and was eventually allowed to leave as a minor league free agent. The Orioles signed him and forgot about him until 2008, when as a 26-year old in double-A (that’s 8 years after getting drafted!) he had a breakout season, hitting .335 with 26 HRs, and 97 RBIs.
That earned him a callup to the bigs where he showed decent power. He was hurt for most of 2009 but was still in the major leagues leading up to 2010. He’s been hurt again this season, prompting Montanez to call this season the worst of his career. If he can’t play like A-Rod, maybe we can at least come up with a cool name like L-Mo or something.
Corey Patterson: I love rooting for Corey Patterson. He was an integral part of my becoming a huge fan of the minor leagues and of the Cubs in general. He was supposed to be our Albert Pujols, our Carlos Beltran (in the KC days), our answer to the prayers of a position player that could hit, hit for power, run, play defense, and throw guys out. Corey was the five-tool player of our dreams.
We all know it didn’t work out in Chicago, which is why the Cubs traded him to Baltimore in 2006. He had two pretty good seasons there, hitting pretty well with some homers and tons of stolen bases. The next year (2008) the Reds signed him and he was terrible, hitting .205 with 10 HRs and 14 steals.
This began the spiraling of Patterson’s career. He’d be signed and released by two different teams (Milwaukee and Washington) in 2009, and when 2010 got underway he had no job. Nobody wanted the once-famous Corey Patterson. Which, honestly, kind of broke my heart. Here was a guy with so much talent and promise and unfulfilled expectations and he didn’t even have a job.
Eventually, Patterson got a job in the minors with Baltimore and they eventually called him up when Nolan Reimold was struggling. And Patterson has been producing ever since: he’s hitting .277, 5 HRs, and 17 steals. And he’s been making amazing defensive catches the whole time. His production made him the O’s leadoff hitter…until someone else came along…
Felix Pie: Felix Pie was traded to the O’s for two pitchers (one of whom is with Seattle now) once upon a time, and after being on the DL for most of the year is finally back on the team. And that leaves Baltimore with quite the dilemma: play the young prospect Pie or play the veteran who has revived his career and been clutch for them so far this year.
Corey Patterson had to deal with this very question in Chicago when Pie was making his way through the system and he’s dealing with it again. He used to start every game and now Pie is eating into some of his starts. If I were in Baltimore, I’d obviously want to see Pie play as much as possible, but I’m such a CPat fan that it pains me to think of him rotting on the bench again (or worse).
Pie is still just 25 and still hasn’t gotten a chance to play a full season, but you can bet Baltimore will give him a shot and maybe ship Patterson off to a contender who needs defense, the occasional homerun, and some speed off the bench.
I’ll take a look at Jake Fox and Will Ohman in a future post.
So Kerry Wood will no longer be a Chicago Cub. My favorite player on the team will not be signed and that means Carlos Marmol will become the new closer. Kevin Gregg, recently acquired from the Marlins (at the HUGE expense of Jose Ceda) will probably fit into the 8th inning, depending on what they do with Samardzija.
Is this a good move?
Obviously, I’m a little biased, but I think this is probably a smart move. Sure, they aren’t saving THAT MUCH money, but considering the needs the team has (another outfielder or a second baseman like Brian Roberts), it makes fiscal sense.
Relievers are notoriously inconsistent and signing Wood to a long-term contract right not probably doesn’t make sense, especially with all his injury problems he’s had. Besides, they have a closer-in-waiting in Carlos Marmol that could step in right away.
They have a string of guys to get them there too: Samardzija and Gregg.
Does it suck big time that Woody is gone? Yes. But if you look at the numbers and the dollars, it makes sense. It must’ve been tough for Hendry to make the move, but I can’t really argue too much with it.
The Stretch 