In case you missed the All-Star Game a few weeks ago, the NL starter at 3B was former Cub Aramis Ramirez. When Adrian Beltre came up to bat (as a pinch hitter), the announcers started gushing about what a great player he has been in his career. They even talked a little bit about his chances of making the Hall of Fame.
As well they should: Beltre probably deserves to make it in.
But another part of me got upset.
Fun With Spreadsheets
About a year ago I put together a spreadsheet that compared Aramis and Beltre’s career batting numbers, and they were pretty much equals. They were the same age and had been in the league about the same time.
How come Aramis didn’t get any love in the All Star Game? How come Aramis never gets any love? How come there are tons of articles debating Beltre’s chances at making the Hall of Fame, while Aramis has just one?
I decided to find out.
In a nutshell, here’s what I found: both have been elite third basemen. Great careers. One has been quietly consistent while the other has had some phenomenal peaks and meh lows.
After crunching all the data, Beltre has clearly been the superior player. But determining both of their Hall-worthiness will depend on how much weight their defense (or lack of) is given.
Los Numeros
Let’s look at some good ol’ fashioned, non-sabermetric, back-of-the-baseball-card career numbers:
| BA | OBP | SLG | |
| ARam | 0.285 | 0.344 | 0.499 |
| Beltre | 0.284 | 0.335 | 0.479 |
Are you also kind of surprised that Aramis holds a slight edge over Beltre? I was too.
Some more “old-school” numbers:
| R | H | HR | RBI | |
| ARam | 1044 | 2136 | 367 | 1328 |
| Beltre | 1234 | 2546 | 391 | 1365 |
OK, so in terms of raw numbers, Beltre has Aramis beat.* Both guys broke into the league when they were really young (19), and the reason why Beltre beats Aramis here is because he’s missed a bunch of games due to injuries. He may be slugging and getting on base at a better clip, but because Beltre has been healthier, he’s amassed more raw numbers.
*One other thing to keep in mind: Beltre played in pitcher-friendly Seattle for 5 years, and that hampered his numbers during that time.
And raw numbers are a big deal for hall-of-fame voters.
So are benchmarks.
Beltre has an actual shot at reaching 3,000 hits, which would make him a shoo-in since only George Brett and Wade Boggs hit 3,000 hits as third basemen (both are in the Hall).
Beltre also has a shot at 500 homers, and there are only two 3B in the Hall with that many cuadrangulares (Eddie Matthews and Mike Schmidt, 512 and 548 respectively).
Now is also a good time to mention that third base is the hardest position to “make it” into the Hall of Fame.
Believe it or not, there are only 11 3B in the Hall.
Of course, this doesn’t include Chipper Jones (who will definitely go in) and Scott Rolen (who might make it in). Not yet, anyway.
Legends of the Hall
Here’s what it takes to make into the Hall as a 3B:
| WAR | AVG | OBP | SLG | Hits | HR | RBI | RUNS | SB | GG | |
| AVG | 68 | 0.296 | 0.366 | 0.453 | 2352 | 228 | 1203 | 1217 | 114 | |
| Frank Baker | 63 | 0.307 | 0.363 | 0.442 | 1838 | 96 | 987 | 887 | 235 | |
| Wade Boggs | 91 | 0.328 | 0.415 | 0.443 | 3010 | 118 | 1014 | 1513 | 24 | 2 |
| George Brett | 88 | 0.305 | 0.373 | 0.487 | 3154 | 317 | 1595 | 1583 | 201 | 1 |
| Jimmy Collins | 53 | 0.294 | 0.344 | 0.409 | 1999 | 65 | 983 | 1055 | 194 | |
| George Kell | 37 | 0.306 | 0.368 | 0.414 | 2054 | 78 | 870 | 881 | 51 | |
| Freddie Lindstrom | 28 | 0.311 | 0.351 | 0.449 | 1747 | 103 | 779 | 895 | 84 | |
| Eddie Mathews | 96 | 0.271 | 0.378 | 0.509 | 2315 | 512 | 1453 | 1509 | 68 | |
| Brooks Robinson | 78 | 0.267 | 0.325 | 0.401 | 2848 | 268 | 1357 | 1232 | 28 | 16 |
| Ron Santo | 70 | 0.277 | 0.362 | 0.464 | 2254 | 342 | 1331 | 1138 | 35 | 5 |
| Mike Schmidt | 106 | 0.267 | 0.384 | 0.527 | 2234 | 548 | 1595 | 1506 | 174 | 10 |
| Pie Traynor | 36 | 0.32 | 0.362 | 0.435 | 2416 | 58 | 1273 | 1183 | 158 |
Keep in mind that a lot of these guys got into the Hall back in the day and the standards are a little different now. You need eye-popping numbers or a boatload of gold gloves to make it in.
If you compare Aramis and Beltre to this group, they both definitely have a shot at making it.
Defensive Indifference
If we were to let Aramis “catch up” to the at bats Beltre has (roughly 3.5 season’s worth), their career offensive numbers would be pretty close.
But that doesn’t explain why Beltre gets so much more love than Aramis. The reason is that Beltre is widely considered one of the best defensive 3B of all time. Aramis isn’t considered anything.
Let’s look at their career WAR, the super stat that is supposed to be the best indicator of a player’s overall quality. WAR is what most baseball writers used to make the case that Mike Trout should’ve been the MVP over Miguel Cabrera the past two years.
It encompasses all the value a player brings to the game, including defense. Let’s look at their career numbers broken down by defensive and offensive WAR. And remember, WAR is cumulative, so the more you play, the more you can accumulate.
| WAR | oWAR | dWAR | |
| Aramis | 33 | 40.7 | -5.4 |
| Beltre | 75 | 55.9 | 22.6 |
This is why nobody talks about these two players in the same breath: Beltre smokes Aramis in career WAR.
Beltre has won four gold gloves to Aramis’ zero.
Aramis has always been an average third baseman, so I’m surprised that his WAR is actually negative. Beltre, on the other hand, has been routinely lauded as one of the best defensive third basemen in the history of the game.
So Will ARam Make it or Not?
Barring some kind of sudden collapse or career-threatening injury, Beltre is probably going to make it. His best comp right now is Ron Santo (and he’s a unique case), but with more time he’ll far surpass his numbers.
As for Aramis, the easiest way to tell is by looking ahead at what the voters do with Scott Rolen. Once that decision comes (in 2018), we’ll have the data on the rest of ARam and Beltre’s careers, as well as a general sense of how important defense and WAR will be to voters.
If Aramis is going to make it, he needs Beltre to get in (which is likely). If he plays 4-5 more seasons, Beltre could get up near that 90 WAR plateau, and it would get REALLY hard to keep him out. Especially if he gets 3,000 hits. He even has a shot at 500 HRs. Combine that with the four gold gloves he already has, and he won’t be denied.
Aramis, on the other hand, will need to produce at his highest level for a few more years to accumulate enough WAR to get him even close. Maybe moving to the AL where he can DH and staunch the negative dWAR (which, again, is kind of surprising) will help extend his career and his chances of making it in.
So if Rolen makes it then it’s very likely Beltre makes it, and those are good signs for Aramis.
What Others are Saying
Remember that one article that mentions Aramis and the Hall of Fame? Here it is again. From that article:
But MLB.com stats guru Roger Schlueter suggested that one of Ramirez’s suits — his consistency — will work against him in a Hall of Fame discussion. In other words, Ramirez’s career has had no clear peak, and his yearly contributions are impressive, but short of consideration for Cooperstown.
That sucks if his consistency would get in the way…I remember that incredible season Beltre had before he hit free agency: it put him on the map in a big way that Aramis never had.
I’ll leave you with how the players feel about their chances at making the Hall.
Beltre: “Maybe when I retire, I’ll look back at what I’ve done, maybe my son can appreciate what I’ve done.”
Aramis: “I always say I’ll look back on my numbers when I retire…”
Image by Terren in Virginia
The Stretch 