The Chicago Cubs have a lot of shortstops on 40-man roster:
Starlin Castro: Starting SS
Addison Russell: ML-ready SS, now playing 2B
Jonathan Herrera: Utility IF, plays anywhere on the infield
Javier Baez: Converted to 2B, also a backup SS
Arismendy Alcantara: Cubs version of Ben Zobrist, plays everywhere. Starting at 2B in AAA
Junior Lake: Now exclusively an OF in AAA
So what do you do when you have one spot for a SS and that many guys who can play the position on your roster? You move them around somewhere else!
When I discussed the Cubs 2015 Defense, I talked about how many players were playing out of position, which was a bit of a concern. That got me thinking about how easily the Cubs FO is willing to put a SS somewhere else on the diamond:
Javier Baez, who still needs to work on his pitch selection, was brought up to the big leagues and told to learn 2B on the fly.
Addison Russell has just been told the same thing: welcome to the big leagues—here’s your new position!
Junior Lake was converted into an OF as he approached the big leagues, and now that’s all he plays. Not to blame the position shift on his bombing with the bat at the big-league level, but you never know.
Arismendy is probably the most interesting case, because his athleticism has anointed him with the title of “super utility” player, which means he’ll play anywhere on the field.
Is all of this OK?
Well, it’s obviously OK because the Cubs are doing it and Joe Maddon can do no wrong.
But seriously, if you want to move a player around like this, the SS is the right guy to ask. From way down in little league all the way up to pro ball, the SS is typically one of the most athletic, talented players on the team.
And this is especially true when it comes to defensive ability—the Cubs just happen to have a handful of shortstops that can actually hit.
So how hard is it to take a SS and ask him to play a new position?
This question was brought up a lot when Javier Baez was called up and asked to move to 2B. I didn’t think it was a great idea because his bat needed work—why put this whole new set of demands on him?
The Negatives
Why take a young player that’s on the cusp of making it to the big leagues and then ask him to learn a brand-new position at the highest possible level? Not only does it hamper his development, it also negatively affects the big-league club’s defense.
So you’re losing out at both ends. Why do it then?
The Positives
We got to see Javier Baez playing in the big leagues regularly at the end of 2014. We are getting to see Addison Russell NOW rather than later on.
Here’s where you try to take a negative and turn it into a positive: asking Baez and Russell to “worry” about playing a new position takes some of the mental toll off of their bats.
You hear managers and veterans tell young players all the time: “Just be yourself, do what you’ve always done, don’t try to do too much.”
Asking them to play a new position helps with that. As long as they’re athletic enough (which most SSs are), they should be OK defensively while the bat just does what it should do. This is assuming the bat is ready (which is why Baez should be at AAA, still).
As for the Alcantaras and Lakes—players who aren’t currently everyday players at their new position—they’ve now become more flexible players that can bring that versatility to the team and to their game.
Alcantara could become a super utility guy that allows Joe Maddon to do all kinds of crazy things with the lineup.
Junior Lake could provide some depth as a 4th outfielder or could bring something back in a trade.
How Hard is It?
For a player who can play SS at the pro level, not terribly hard. Yes, the double play is different. The ball comes off the bat differently. There are new angles to learn. You won’t be as comfortable in the field at the new position.
That can all be learned rather quickly—the part that is VERY hard is doing this at the big league level for the first time.
Welcome to the highest rung of pro ball—you finally made it here! Now go stand over here and learn all these nuances on the fly while helping the team win. Go!
That’s not easy, but it’s what the FO has chosen to go with in an effort to make 2015 the season where the Cubs are no longer “rebuilding” and go into “competing” mode.
Personally, I’ve waited long enough. After seeing Kris Bryant in CF last night, I’m excited to see what else Maddon has up his sleeve in an effort to get this team to the playoffs.
Get your catcher’s mitt ready Javier, you never know…
Cubs fans (including myself) are excited right now: our top prospects are starting to flow into the big leagues, there’s plenty of budget to sign a pitcher or two in the offseason, and our existing pitchers are making their case to be a part of the long-term plan (see Hendricks).
All in all, “next year” really does appear to be next year. Or maybe the year after that.
But there’s one part of the team you haven’t heard much about: defense.
We have heard that having so many shortstops is great because they can play anywhere. But how does that impact the overall defense of a young team trying to come climb out of years of sucktitude?
Let’s take a look at the main position player(s) for each position for the 2015 Cubs. We’ll use this as our starting point:
Let me give the 2015 #Cubs lineup a shot:
Coghlan LF
Baez 2B
Castro SS
Rizzo 1B
Soler RF
Bryant 3B
Castillo C
Alcantara CF
Coghlan was originally a 2B that was moved to the outfield during his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2009. The numbers show him as a liability out there: his -12.0 UZR/150 (and -8.4 in his career as a LF) would place him next to last in baseball if he qualified. Right above the immortal Melky Cabrera.
Personally, I love the on-base skills and veteranness that he brings, so I’m fine with having him out there…but just want to point out that we have a 2B playing left field right now.
I know it’s not fair to cherry pick a bad play like this, but I’m doing it anyway:
And just to be fair—let’s be clear that this isn’t Jose Canseco out there:
Summary: Not Helping
2B – Javier Baez
Speaking of position switches, this is one storyline that people have been quick to embrace. Yeah, he’s a SS being asked to move over to 2B and Baez himself says he’s totally comfortable with it. And yes, Baseball America touted Baez as the Cubs’ best infielder (in the minors) in 2013, so there’s that.
But it’s still a position change. At the highest level. By a guy that was never touted as a potential gold glover or anything. And he’s just 21 years old.
The thing is, playing 2B is probably easier than playing SS, so this move might actually help Baez’s transition to the Majors because he doesn’t have to worry about all the things that come with being a SS. So far he’s flashed a plus arm and made the plays he needs to make, with the occasional error thrown in.
He’s no Darwin Barney, but hey—he’ll probably blow through Barney’s career HR number (18) in just a few months.
So while Cubs fans can’t complain, we need to remember that he’s a rookie, he’s 21, and he came up as a SS.
Summary: Should be decent
SS – Starlin Castro
Starlin took a lot of heat when he was younger, and some of that has unfairly followed him around. This is his fifth season as the starting SS and he’s only 24 years old.
Advanced fielding metrics show that he’s slightly below average, but he’s definitely shown an improvement since 2010. Slight as it may be, his fielding percentage has improved each year he’s been in the league:
Year
Fld %
2010
0.950
2011
0.961
2012
0.964
2013
0.967
2014
0.964
But again, for the offense he’s contributing and the improvements he’s made, everyone is quite pleased to have him out there. Besides, if defense ever becomes a sticking point at SS, the Cubs have Addison Russell, who is supposed to be a plus defender.
Summary: Slightly Below Average
1B – Anthony Rizzo
Finally, an elite defender on the team! Watching Rizzo play 1B is reminiscent of Mark Grace. The way he gobbles up grounders and feeds pitchers covering the bag makes you feel comfortable trusting this man with your newborn baby.
If you look at all qualifying 1B that from 2012 until now, Rizzo is at or near the top in metrics like UZR/150 and RngR (2nd place behind Adrian Gonzalez).
He was also a Gold Glove finalist last year (Goldschmidt won it). Rizzo’s made some nice tumbling catches, but to me it’s this kind of play that really shows his value: saving runs and making his infielders better in the process.
All in all, the Cubs have an elite defensive player at a key position, which is great news.
Summary: Elite Player
RF – Jorge Soler / Justin Ruggiano
Let’s start with Ruggiano, who actually has more career innings in LF and CF than in RF. He also fits into this whole “playing (slightly) out of position” theme touched on. But over his career, Ruggiano has profiled as average to slightly above average in the OF. And while he profiles more as a 4th OF, the Cubs have a guy that can play anywhere in the OF and give them pretty good defense (never mind his offensive game, for now).
Here’s what we know about Soler: he has a cannon of an arm, though it’s not always the most accurate. While comparisons to Yasiel Puig are inevitable, we’ll just have to wait and see what he does from a defensive standpoint. He hasn’t had that much playing time to really make a call one way or another, but from all the reports I’m reading, no one seems to be worried about his defense. You have to take it with a grain of salt, but here’s what Jed Hoyer said:
[Soler] has been playing great, and is locked in now, and great at-bats, great attitude, playing good defense.
Summary: Average
3B – Kris Bryant / Luis Valbuena
I’ll be honest: I didn’t expect this one. Luis Valbuena (who also plays 2B, mind you) turns out to be one of the top defensive 3B in the game—according to UZR. If you look at the data from 2012-2014 (when he started playing mostly at 3B), Valbuena is behind only Manny Machado in UZR/150 and 6th in Fangraphs’ DEF metric (which I think is their defense-only WAR metric). All in all, Valbuena has been very good at 3B, while bringing that added flexibility of moving to 2B if need be (which isn’t a need now that Baez is up).
As for Bryant, it’s tough to tell. It’s his first full pro season and from the beginning, scouts were assuming he’d have to move to the outfield. Those murmurs have definitely faded over time, which is a good sign. He’s been working at it, and it’s starting to pay off. In fact, Bryant was named the top defensive 3B in the Pacific Coast league by Baseball America.
Summary:Above Average
C – Welington Castillo
Last season, the Cubs were the third-best team in the league in defensive efficiency thanks largely to Darwin Barney, Anthony Rizzo, and Welington Castillo. Castillo isn’t just an above-average backstop: he’s right up there in the top 5 in the NL.
He’s above average at blocking balls, keeping runners from stealing, and he’s handling all the new pitchers coming on board really nicely. Some might even say he’s reached elite status.
Remember when we couldn’t decide if Castillo or Clevenger should be the catcher of the future next few years? Yeah, this was the right call.
Summary: Very Good
CF – Arismendy Alcantara
Here’s another guy playing out of position. Instead of staying in the infield like Baez, however, Mendy is out in center field. This gives him a little more time to react to balls and use his speed to make up for any bad jumps, but so far he’s done a pretty serviceable job. His longer throws still tail quite a bit to his left, but that’s easy to fix with practice and experience.
“He’s been playing well in center field, and I’m trying to teach him different things, such as throws from the outfield,” Sweeney said. “He’s a great kid who wants to get better. It’s fun to watch these guys play and just help them in any way I can.” – From Chicago Tribune
So far, we’ve gotten what we would expect from putting a young, athletic, middle-infielder out in CF: some good stuff mixed with some bumbles that can easily be attributed to “not enough experience,” which is encouraging.
All in all, Mendy will probably put get better as he gets more and more experience in the outfield, and with his speed, arm, and athleticism, become an above-average CF. For now, he’s just average.
Summary: Average
Couple of Things
One of the most intriguing things is that Renteria said Matt Szczur is a guy they see as a 4th outfielder that can platoon. Curious to see how much platooning the Cubs will do next year with so many young kids in the lineup…it didn’t really help Olt and Lake much, but I commend the Cubs explicitly trying.
Also, Szczur is supposed to be an elite defensive outfielder, so that’s a good sign.
It’s All About Winning
Fielding a good defensive team is all well and good, but we should only care about it if it’s leading to more wins. The Royals are not good bad at drawing walks and hitting home runs, so they absolutely have to have great defense to be in the playoff hunt (read this for more on the Royals, you’ll thank me later).
It definitely doesn’t hurt (duh), but you’ll also note that the Padres are a very good defensive team and are well below .500.
BUT but but! The better your defense, the better your pitchers will be (especially a contact/grounder machine like Hendricks). Having some really talented players sprinkled on the team means your young prospects that are coming up will also benefit.
Your 1B can save a lot of bad throws and your catcher can block some pitches in the dirt from your young pitchers.
That’s why Rizzo and Castillo are so important.
It may sound like I’m overall negative on the team’s defense going into 2015. But one thing you have to admit is that the roster has a ton of flexibility built into it. That is, you have guys that can move around a lot and adapt to several different positions.
I’m not saying this is a Moneyball-ish trait (at least not for this team) that will help in making them contenders, but it’s a must when you have a lot of depth in your system at certain positions. If you are in trade conversations, your opponent doesn’t have that leverage over you that you have to move a guy because everyone knows you got nowhere to play them.
Dan Vogelbach is a good example of this: he can play 1B and that’s pretty much it. If he was at AAA killing the ball and his development indicated it was time for him to be called up, the Cubs would lose some leverage there, because they already have a long-term solution at 1B.
In the end, the Cubs are looking like an average defensive team in 2015 with an outside shot at being a tick above, and I’m totally OK with that.
First we need to make one thing clear: the Cubs will NOT field a team made up solely of prospects or “young guys.” This just doesn’t happen. It’s the reason why Luis Valbuena, Justin Ruggiano, and Chris Coghlan are still on the team.
It might work in video games, but in the real world you need a veteran presence. And besides, some of those prospects will wind up failing and never amounting to anything.
Which brings me to Junior Lake.
Junior Lake's month so far: 2 starts, 5 DNP, 2 PH and 1 PR. July line was .114/.133/.159. #Cubs
Junior got off to a nice start in May, hitting .273 with 4 HRs and 6 BBs. Since then, he’s hitting .182 with 1 BB (!) and 42 Ks.
His 2013 slash of .284/.332/.428 is but a distant memory.
Junior’s Special Sauce
At his best, Lake is a player with speed and power that can play multiple positions. There’s just something about watching a guy lay down a bunt and hustling to first that can also hit a towering home run that fills me with joy.
His minor league numbers and his tools make me think he could become a poor man’s Carlos Gomez (without all those steals) or a lesser-hyped Corey Patterson: a guy who just can’t stop striking out—therefore neutralizing his speed.
Either way, we’re not going to find out with him sitting on the bench (he’s 24 years old). As far as I see it, there are four different outcomes for Junior:
1. Back to AAA
Send him down the way you did Mike Olt so he can get some at bats, work on some things, and pick up some confidence. I know it’s easier said than done, but just tell him to stop swinging as hard as he can every single time AND work on controlling the zone. Maybe he figures some stuff out and comes back a better player.
2. Fourth Outfielder/Utility Guy
Gets a start here and there against lefties, comes in for defense, and provides some pop off the bench. Instead of having Travis Wood come in to run, Lake does it. He can play the infield as well. This is less exciting and obviously not as valuable, but this could be where he ends up if he can’t get back on track (or if the Cubs just don’t give him any ABs).
3. Traded
I don’t see this happening now since his trade value is so low, but you never know. Someone decides to take a flier on him (Detroit?) to see what he can do with some consistent playing time. If this does actually happen, I’m thinking it’ll be next year once the Cubs actually get him playing regularly (be it in the bigs or in the minors).
4. Injury Opens Up Playing Time
Someone gets hurt and Junior gets to play every day. You never know with baseball, so it’s nice to have the depth to cover any kind of injury, but this is kind of a boring answer both for Lake fans and for Lake himself. It means he maybe gets another shot at starting.
What’s the Rush?
Why worry about Junior Lake right now? Like I said, he’s young and there’s plenty of time to watch him mature and figure things out…right?
Kind of.
The Cubs’ window of respectability is slowly opening and the next prospect banging on the door is Jorge Soler, who will get RF all to himself, squeezing Lake out even further.
Why do I care? Because that damn combination of power, speed, and the willingness to bunt. Most guys that can hit home runs see bunting as beneath them, and I love Lake’s willingness to take the bunt single if he sees it there.
Besides, even though I know not every prospect is going to work out, I’m still not ready to give up on this one. Hell, I’m still hoping Josh Vitters might shock the world and turn into something.
By the way, if you want to read more on Lake, check out the SunTimes. @TonyAndracki23 wrote a nice piece on Junior Lake that came out last night asking a lot of the same questions I cover here.
I’ve been talking to lots of pretty knowledgable Cubs fans recently about what the team needs to change this offseason in order to get them back into the playoffs and make ammends for their disastrous performance from this year. And it’s been surprising. Everything from trading Derek Lee and installing Micah Hoffpauir as your starter to trading Zambrano for prospects.
To all these outlandish schemes I say: NO.
Are you kidding me? This was a team that won 97 games last year despite an “off” season by their number one starter and a whole bunch of games that Soriano missed. And the whole hop thing. RIch Hill caught the Ankiel bug and was banished to the minors, Felix Pie continued being Felix Pie, and Jason Marquis enraged everyone. And still they managed to pull off a season like this?
Why would you change anything? I’ll tell you why: fans only remember the very latest thing the team did, and that was their horrible play in the postseason. The offense sucked and the pitching was just OK. So now they want an offensive overhaul and more pitching.
I’ll admit that something needs to be done about right field—a right-handed bat to complement Fukudome (or replace him outright depending on how things go), another lefty in the pen (that can throw strikes, pretty please), or a second baseman if DeRosa is moved to right field. So there are legitimate issues but not on the scale that the fans I’m talking to are thinking.
Let’s be honest, they are Hot Stove happy. And I understand, but let’s not forget the wise words of Billy Beane: the playoffs are a crapshoot.
I believe that’s true and I think that a full season of the same offense that put up an NL leading .354 OBP (with some tweaks) could put the team right back in the playoffs.
As for the outfield situation (see Fukudome), tune in later for more rumor mongering on that one…
The Stretch 