Cubs fans (including myself) are excited right now: our top prospects are starting to flow into the big leagues, there’s plenty of budget to sign a pitcher or two in the offseason, and our existing pitchers are making their case to be a part of the long-term plan (see Hendricks).
All in all, “next year” really does appear to be next year. Or maybe the year after that.
But there’s one part of the team you haven’t heard much about: defense.
We have heard that having so many shortstops is great because they can play anywhere. But how does that impact the overall defense of a young team trying to come climb out of years of sucktitude?
Let’s take a look at the main position player(s) for each position for the 2015 Cubs. We’ll use this as our starting point:
LF – Chris Coghlan
Coghlan was originally a 2B that was moved to the outfield during his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2009. The numbers show him as a liability out there: his -12.0 UZR/150 (and -8.4 in his career as a LF) would place him next to last in baseball if he qualified. Right above the immortal Melky Cabrera.
Personally, I love the on-base skills and veteranness that he brings, so I’m fine with having him out there…but just want to point out that we have a 2B playing left field right now.
I know it’s not fair to cherry pick a bad play like this, but I’m doing it anyway:
And just to be fair—let’s be clear that this isn’t Jose Canseco out there:
Summary: Not Helping
2B – Javier Baez
Speaking of position switches, this is one storyline that people have been quick to embrace. Yeah, he’s a SS being asked to move over to 2B and Baez himself says he’s totally comfortable with it. And yes, Baseball America touted Baez as the Cubs’ best infielder (in the minors) in 2013, so there’s that.
But it’s still a position change. At the highest level. By a guy that was never touted as a potential gold glover or anything. And he’s just 21 years old.
The thing is, playing 2B is probably easier than playing SS, so this move might actually help Baez’s transition to the Majors because he doesn’t have to worry about all the things that come with being a SS. So far he’s flashed a plus arm and made the plays he needs to make, with the occasional error thrown in.
He’s no Darwin Barney, but hey—he’ll probably blow through Barney’s career HR number (18) in just a few months.
So while Cubs fans can’t complain, we need to remember that he’s a rookie, he’s 21, and he came up as a SS.
Summary: Should be decent
SS – Starlin Castro
Starlin took a lot of heat when he was younger, and some of that has unfairly followed him around. This is his fifth season as the starting SS and he’s only 24 years old.
Advanced fielding metrics show that he’s slightly below average, but he’s definitely shown an improvement since 2010. Slight as it may be, his fielding percentage has improved each year he’s been in the league:
| Year | Fld % |
| 2010 | 0.950 |
| 2011 | 0.961 |
| 2012 | 0.964 |
| 2013 | 0.967 |
| 2014 | 0.964 |
But again, for the offense he’s contributing and the improvements he’s made, everyone is quite pleased to have him out there. Besides, if defense ever becomes a sticking point at SS, the Cubs have Addison Russell, who is supposed to be a plus defender.
Summary: Slightly Below Average
1B – Anthony Rizzo
Finally, an elite defender on the team! Watching Rizzo play 1B is reminiscent of Mark Grace. The way he gobbles up grounders and feeds pitchers covering the bag makes you feel comfortable trusting this man with your newborn baby.
If you look at all qualifying 1B that from 2012 until now, Rizzo is at or near the top in metrics like UZR/150 and RngR (2nd place behind Adrian Gonzalez).
He was also a Gold Glove finalist last year (Goldschmidt won it). Rizzo’s made some nice tumbling catches, but to me it’s this kind of play that really shows his value: saving runs and making his infielders better in the process.
All in all, the Cubs have an elite defensive player at a key position, which is great news.
Summary: Elite Player
RF – Jorge Soler / Justin Ruggiano
Let’s start with Ruggiano, who actually has more career innings in LF and CF than in RF. He also fits into this whole “playing (slightly) out of position” theme touched on. But over his career, Ruggiano has profiled as average to slightly above average in the OF. And while he profiles more as a 4th OF, the Cubs have a guy that can play anywhere in the OF and give them pretty good defense (never mind his offensive game, for now).
Here’s what we know about Soler: he has a cannon of an arm, though it’s not always the most accurate. While comparisons to Yasiel Puig are inevitable, we’ll just have to wait and see what he does from a defensive standpoint. He hasn’t had that much playing time to really make a call one way or another, but from all the reports I’m reading, no one seems to be worried about his defense. You have to take it with a grain of salt, but here’s what Jed Hoyer said:
[Soler] has been playing great, and is locked in now, and great at-bats, great attitude, playing good defense.
Summary: Average
3B – Kris Bryant / Luis Valbuena
I’ll be honest: I didn’t expect this one. Luis Valbuena (who also plays 2B, mind you) turns out to be one of the top defensive 3B in the game—according to UZR. If you look at the data from 2012-2014 (when he started playing mostly at 3B), Valbuena is behind only Manny Machado in UZR/150 and 6th in Fangraphs’ DEF metric (which I think is their defense-only WAR metric). All in all, Valbuena has been very good at 3B, while bringing that added flexibility of moving to 2B if need be (which isn’t a need now that Baez is up).
As for Bryant, it’s tough to tell. It’s his first full pro season and from the beginning, scouts were assuming he’d have to move to the outfield. Those murmurs have definitely faded over time, which is a good sign. He’s been working at it, and it’s starting to pay off. In fact, Bryant was named the top defensive 3B in the Pacific Coast league by Baseball America.
Summary: Above Average
C – Welington Castillo
Last season, the Cubs were the third-best team in the league in defensive efficiency thanks largely to Darwin Barney, Anthony Rizzo, and Welington Castillo. Castillo isn’t just an above-average backstop: he’s right up there in the top 5 in the NL.
He’s above average at blocking balls, keeping runners from stealing, and he’s handling all the new pitchers coming on board really nicely. Some might even say he’s reached elite status.
Remember when we couldn’t decide if Castillo or Clevenger should be the catcher of the future next few years? Yeah, this was the right call.
Summary: Very Good
CF – Arismendy Alcantara
Here’s another guy playing out of position. Instead of staying in the infield like Baez, however, Mendy is out in center field. This gives him a little more time to react to balls and use his speed to make up for any bad jumps, but so far he’s done a pretty serviceable job. His longer throws still tail quite a bit to his left, but that’s easy to fix with practice and experience.
“He’s been playing well in center field, and I’m trying to teach him different things, such as throws from the outfield,” Sweeney said. “He’s a great kid who wants to get better. It’s fun to watch these guys play and just help them in any way I can.” – From Chicago Tribune
So far, we’ve gotten what we would expect from putting a young, athletic, middle-infielder out in CF: some good stuff mixed with some bumbles that can easily be attributed to “not enough experience,” which is encouraging.
All in all, Mendy will probably put get better as he gets more and more experience in the outfield, and with his speed, arm, and athleticism, become an above-average CF. For now, he’s just average.
Summary: Average
Couple of Things
One of the most intriguing things is that Renteria said Matt Szczur is a guy they see as a 4th outfielder that can platoon. Curious to see how much platooning the Cubs will do next year with so many young kids in the lineup…it didn’t really help Olt and Lake much, but I commend the Cubs explicitly trying.
Also, Szczur is supposed to be an elite defensive outfielder, so that’s a good sign.
It’s All About Winning
Fielding a good defensive team is all well and good, but we should only care about it if it’s leading to more wins. The Royals are not good bad at drawing walks and hitting home runs, so they absolutely have to have great defense to be in the playoff hunt (read this for more on the Royals, you’ll thank me later).
It definitely doesn’t hurt (duh), but you’ll also note that the Padres are a very good defensive team and are well below .500.
BUT but but! The better your defense, the better your pitchers will be (especially a contact/grounder machine like Hendricks). Having some really talented players sprinkled on the team means your young prospects that are coming up will also benefit.
Your 1B can save a lot of bad throws and your catcher can block some pitches in the dirt from your young pitchers.
That’s why Rizzo and Castillo are so important.
It may sound like I’m overall negative on the team’s defense going into 2015. But one thing you have to admit is that the roster has a ton of flexibility built into it. That is, you have guys that can move around a lot and adapt to several different positions.
I’m not saying this is a Moneyball-ish trait (at least not for this team) that will help in making them contenders, but it’s a must when you have a lot of depth in your system at certain positions. If you are in trade conversations, your opponent doesn’t have that leverage over you that you have to move a guy because everyone knows you got nowhere to play them.
Dan Vogelbach is a good example of this: he can play 1B and that’s pretty much it. If he was at AAA killing the ball and his development indicated it was time for him to be called up, the Cubs would lose some leverage there, because they already have a long-term solution at 1B.
In the end, the Cubs are looking like an average defensive team in 2015 with an outside shot at being a tick above, and I’m totally OK with that.
Image by Casey Fleser
The Stretch 